Floor Performance
The casino earns about what its games are designed to keep.
Money the house kept
House win = wagered minus paid out. Dashed line = what the games are designed to keep.
Earnings by Zone
House win per machine per day, by zone
A zone is a named area of the casino floor. Click a column to filter the page to it.
Demand
What drives how much is played.
Money wagered per machine per day
Shaded: events and the Back Forty walkway closure (red). Shown in Daily and Weekly views.
Weekdays, Events and the Back Forty Closure
Busiest weekdays
Event lift in play
vs. a normal day
Back Forty vs. rest of floor
Monthly numbers
Downtime
Machines out of service cannot earn.
Win lost to machines out of service
Estimated from each machine's own earning rate, per day.
Breakdowns, Technicians and Time of Day
Breakdowns per month
Whole floor, monthly
Technician cover
Whole floor. Share of planned technicians who worked.
By hour of day
Whole floor. Share of machine-hours unavailable.
The 10 Lowest Machines
Management's list, tested one reason at a time.
Dollars of each machine's gap behind a typical machine, by reason. In each row the darkest cell is the main reason.
All machines: draw and luck
Right = busier than similar machines. Below 0 = unluckier than average.
M-1158 payout rate
Share of spins that pay anything, by month.
Expected gain from swapping each machine for another game
First 16 operating days of July, for the 10 lowest over Jan–Jun. Dashed line = lease cost ($3,380).
Guests
Loyalty-card players only (about two-thirds of play). Data is monthly.
Wagered and paid back by month
Loyalty-card players
Net result by month
Paid back minus wagered. Negative = players lost.
Loss Concentration and Guest Groups
Concentration of losses
Players from largest loss to smallest. A higher curve = more concentrated.
Guest groups
Comps
What free items cost, and what changed.
Points a guest pays for $1 of free items
Weekly. Lower = comps are cheaper for guests.
Cost per Dollar Wagered, Before and After
Comp cost per $1,000 wagered
Shaded: after April 28.
Before and after April 28
Forecast Models
Trained on January to April, tested on May to June.
Model 1: daily wagering for the whole floor
Weekday pattern × recent level. Shaded = test period.
Model 2: expected play for each machine
Gradient-boosted trees. Each dot is one machine's total over the 61 test days.
July Forecast and Leakage Checks
July forecast of daily wagering
Model 1 refit on Jan–Jun. Fri–Sun highlighted.
Leakage checks
Budget Plan
Up to three actions for July 1–30, or keep the money.
The $100,000 budget
Three actions; the rest is kept.
Scenarios, Options Turned Down and Full Plan
Expected gain after cost
Low, base and high scenarios
Considered and not chosen
Priced plan, assumptions and measurement
Appendix: Evidence and Method
Where each claim comes from, and its limits.